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Agenda Overview

Investor Day: Tuesday, January 22, 2019

8:00AM Registration & morning refreshments
8:55AM Chairperson's opening remarks
9:00AM How healthy is the global aviation finance industry? In numbers
  • Where are we in the industry cycle?
  • Traffic growth forecasts, will they materialise?
  • How much liquidity is currently chasing aviation assets and what impact has increased levels of liquidity had on the industry overall?
Mark Streeter, Managing Director, Airline/Aircraft Credit Research, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
10:00AM Can we expect the frequency of ABS issuance to continue to rise in 2019?
  • In May 2018 The Airline Analyst found for that for the first time in four years, by its own criteria more airlines declined in financial strength than improved, what does this mean for the industry?
  • Can we expect this trend to continue?
  • What impact do we expect to see on the broader industry?
10:40AM Morning networking break & refreshments
11:10AM Aircraft acquisition negotiation masterclass

Acquiring a commercial aircraft is no simple matter, there are a number of stakeholders involved that go beyond simply the buyer or lessee or the seller or lessor. Consequently the skills involved in ensuring a successful negotiation are multi-faceted and require a working knowledge of both the asset and the surrounding industry. Learn “the art of the deal” from this panel of aviation aficionados.

12:10PM Networking lunch
1:40PM The evolution of the sub-150 seat segment
  • What impact can we expect recent M&A between Airbus and Bombardier or Boeing & Embraer to have on this market segment?
  • Can we expect Scope Clauses to change, thus opening up a bigger market for these aircraft in the United States?
  • How robust is the aftermarket for turbo-props & regional aircraft?
2:20PM The impact of new entrants on asset values
  • How is new capital injected in the industry by Asian investors impacting asset values and investment opportunities?
  • What would happen to the assets being financed by this new capital in the event of a downturn?
  • What investment opportunities are being created by new entrants or will open up in the nearer and longer term?
Marc Iarchy, Principle, World Star Aviation UK
3:20PM Afternoon networking break & refreshments
3:40PM How does aviation stack up against other asset classes?
  • Why has aviation remained such a robust industry vs other transport asset classes, such as shipping?
  • What do buy-side investors need to know about this asset class in order to ensure the most positive returns possible?
  • What are the obvious entry points for new investors looking at aviation?
Bob Peart, Portfolio Manager, Magnetar Capital
David Andrews, Managing Partner - Transport, Hudson Structured Capital Management
4:20PM What's causing the discrepancy between real & theoretical values?

Often the base value of an aircraft as offered in an appraisal does not directly translate to transactions; as such a disparity between “real” and “theoretical” values has emerged. Hear the experts breakdown these disparities and offer an informative view on what your assets are really worth, with or without leases attached.

Scott Hamilton, Managing Director, Leeham Co.

Day 1: Wednesday, January 23, 2019

8:00AM Registration & morning refreshments
8:55AM Chairperson's opening remarks
9:00AM Will strong airline performance continue through a challenging macro environment?
  • How will airlines react to a shifting macro-economic environment featuring higher fuel prices & interest rates?
  • Will we see increased fleet turnover as the economic case for mid-life assets deteriorate?
  • How do airlines expect to develop their fleet planning over the next 10-15 years & what does that mean for delivery profiles?
10:00AM Headwinds facing airline treasuries
  • How are airlines strengthening their position vis a vis rising interest rates?
  • What fuel hedging strategies do airlines have in place in the face of rising fuel prices?
  • Which financing structures are best suited to today’s macro environment?
Moderator: Steven Udvar-Hazy, Executive Chairman, Air Lease Corporation
Christine Rovelli, Vice President - Group Treasurer, Finnair
Marjan Riggi, Senior Managing Director, Kroll Bond Rating Agency
10:40AM Lessor CEO interviews
Back by popular demand, hear the CEO’s of the world’s most influential leasing companies discuss what they see as the future of aviation finance and their strategies for achieving it.
11:20AM Morning refreshments & networking break
11:50AM Continued CEO interviews

Back by popular demand, hear the CEO’s of the world’s most influential leasing companies discuss what they see as the future of aviation finance and their strategies for achieving it.

John Plueger, President and Chief Operating Officer, Air Lease Corporation
12:40PM Networking lunch
2:00PM Do we expect demand for cargo aircraft to continue to rise?
  • What degree of cargo fleet renewal can we expect to see across the cargo market segment?
  • When will the economic case for 700s & 800s make sense for cargo operators?
  • How popular do we expect cargo conversions be for both operators & lessors?
Maxim Straus, Executive Vice President - Chief Financial Officer, Cargolux Airlines
Edward McGarvey, Vice President & Treasurer, Atlas Air Worldwide
2:40PM Can we expect a new phase of consolidation in the leasing market?
  • In light of Goshawk’s acquisition of Sky Leasing, can we expect more of this activity in 2019?
  • Will the race to the bottom in the sale and leaseback market cause consolidation to proliferate?
  • How sustainable is the growth of entrants from Asia?
Paul Sheridan, Chief Executive Officer, Accipiter
3:20PM Afternoon networking break & refreshments
4:00PM Can we expect the frequency of ABS issuance to continue to rise in 2019?
  • The level of aircraft ABS issuance set records in 2018, what is driving this market segment and what do investors need to know to utilise it?
  • What impact can asset appraisers have on the overall value proposition of aircraft securitisations?
  • What role do lessor “sidecars” or management vehicles play in the market today?
Keith Allman, Vice President Senior Securitized Asset Analyst, Loomis Sayles
Mary Kane, Managing Director, US Consumer ABS Research, Global Securitized Products Research, Citi
Ryan McKenna, Vice President, Air Lease Corporation
4:40PM Pilarski says...Drink
  • How realistic is the prospect of a “no-deal” Brexit threatening European open skies?
  • Blue sky thinking – what’s the best possible scenario for the global aviation industry?
  • What impact can we expect a “hard Brexit” to have on aircraft lessors in Dublin managing assets in the UK?
Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice President, AVITAS
5:10PM In conversation with John Leahy
Exclusively at Airfinance Journal Dublin 2019, hear John Leahy in his first public appearance since retirement giving his take on the future of the aviation industry in this free-ranging interview
Moderator: Scott Hamilton, Managing Director, Leeham Co.
John Leahy, Former COO - Customers, Airbus
6:10PM Chairperson's closing remarks
6:15PM Open drinks reception

Day 2: Thursday, January 24, 2019

8:00AM Morning networking & refreshments
8:55AM Chairperson's opening remarks
9:00AM What does the future of low-cost-long-haul look like?
  • What is driving airlines towards this model and what impact do we see it having on incumbent legacy carriers?
  • What headwinds have impacted carriers attempting to operate this model up to now?
  • Which aircraft types have the right economics for this model to work?
10:00AM Factoring airline credit risk when taking bulk orders of new technology aircraft
  • What level of credit risk is being taken on when untested airlines make bulk orders of new technology aircraft?
  • What risk management strategies do OEM treasuries employ to mitigate chances of defaults?
  • Is it sensible for unestablished airlines to be making bulk orders of new technology aircraft primarily for the purpose of pricing?
  • Will the rise in interest rates impact the appetite for new technology aircraft?
Dick Forsberg, Head of Strategy, Avolon
Virginia Fox, Chief Risk Officer, GE Capital Aviation Services
11:00AM If a cycle downturn was here, what would it look like?

The matter of where we stand in the aviation industry cycle is a matter of constant debate; however often speculation reigns. Hear three experts cut through the noise; assess what the signs of a downturn would be if it were here, and analyse whether or not those signs are present today.

Brian Pearce, Chief Economist., International Air Transport Association
Vicky Pryce, Former Joint Head of UK Government Economic Service & Board Member, Centre for Economics & Business Research
Peter Morris, Chief Economist, Flight Ascend Consultancy
11:40AM Morning networking break & refreshments
12:40PM Lunch & end of conference