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Agenda Overview

Investor Day: Tuesday, January 22, 2019

8:00AM Registration & morning refreshments
8:55AM Chairperson's opening remarks
9:00AM Aviation capital markets review & outlook
  • Where are we in the industry cycle?
  • Traffic growth forecasts, will they materialise?
  • How much liquidity is currently chasing aviation assets and what impact has increased levels of liquidity had on the industry overall?
Mark Streeter, Managing Director, Airline/Aircraft Credit Research, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
10:00AM Reviewing credit trends for airlines – the Airline Credit Quality Index
  • In May 2018 The Airline Analyst found for that for the first time in four years, by its own criteria more airlines declined in financial strength than improved, what does this mean for the industry?
  • Can we expect this trend to continue?
  • What impact do we expect to see on the broader industry?
Michael Duff, Managing Director, The Airline Analyst
10:30AM Morning networking break & refreshments
11:00AM Should the proliferation of European airline insolvency make investors give pause?
  • 2018 has seen the trend of European airline insolvencies continue, with more European carriers going bust this year than last – what does this tell us about the European market?
  • As the race to investment grade intensifies in the leasing space, where should investors look to deploy capital in aviation?
  • At what stage can we say that the airline credit cycle has turned?
Moderator: Jim Cameron, Partner - London, Milbank, Tweed, Hadley & McCloy
Helene Spro Johansen, Associate Director Project Finance & Structured Finance, Scope Ratings AG
Joseph Rohlena, Director, Fitch Ratings
Philip A. Baggaley, CFA, Managing Director, Corporate & Government Ratings, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services
Marjan Riggi, Senior Managing Director, Kroll Bond Rating Agency
11:40AM What do engine OEMs have to do to restore trust with operators & lessors
  • All the engine OEM s are in turmoil. What’s happened and when are the problems over?
  • ETOPS issues EASA and FAA limited ETOPS.
  • What’s the fallout?
  • How quickly will 787 recover?
  • More importantly, will the regulators revisit ETOPS approvals for new airplanes (like the 777X, up next?)
Moderator: Laura Mueller, Managing Director, Airfinance Journal
Richard Goodhead, Senior Vice President, Marketing, Rolls-Royce PLC
12:00PM Networking lunch
1:40PM Investing in the metal: Competing aircraft product lines
  • We’ve seen substantial M&A activity in the OEM space, does one product line clearly outshine the other for investors now?
  • How strong is the current product outlook from the OEMs?
  • Has the case for investing in widebody aircraft strengthened or weakened over the last 12 months?
Mark Pearman-Wright, Head of Leasing & Investor Marketing, Airbus
2:20PM The impact of new entrants on asset values
  • How is new capital injected in the industry by Asian investors impacting asset values and investment opportunities 
  • What would happen to the assets being financed by this new capital in the event of a downturn?
  • What investment opportunities are being created by new entrants or will open up in the nearer and longer term?
Marc Iarchy, Principal, World Star Aviation UK
James Moon, Chief Executive Officer, Aermoon
Tomas Sidlauskas, Chief Executive Officer, AviaAM Financial Leasing China
Bill Cumberlidge, Managing Director, Centrus Aviation Capital
3:20PM Afternoon networking break & refreshments
3:40PM How does aviation stack up against other asset classes?
  • Why has aviation remained such a robust industry vs other transport asset classes, such as shipping?
  • What do buy-side investors need to know about this asset class in order to ensure the most positive returns possible?
  • What are the obvious entry points for new investors looking at aviation?
Bob Peart, Portfolio Manager, Magnetar Capital
David Andrews, Managing Partner - Transport, Hudson Structured Capital Management
Gary Fitzgerald, Chief Executive Officer, Stratos
Damon J D'Agostino, President & Chief Executive Officer, Zephyrus Aviation Capital
4:20PM What's causing the discrepancy between real & theoretical values?

Often the base value of an aircraft as offered in appraisal does not directly translate to transactions; as such a disparity between "real" and "theoretical" values has emerged. Hear the experts breakdown these disparities and offer an informative view on what your assets are really worth, with or without leases attached.

Scott Hamilton, Managing Director, Leeham Co.
Mike Yeomans, Head of Valuations, IBA Group Limited
George Dimitroff, Head of Valuations, Flight Ascend Consultancy
Olga Razzhivina, Senior Istat Appraiser, ORIEL
John Vitale, President & Ceo, Avitas
5:20PM Chairperson's closing remarks
5:25PM Networking drinks reception

Day 1: Wednesday, January 23, 2019

Main Conference

8:00AM Registration & morning refreshments
8:55AM Chairperson's opening remarks
Gillian Kelly, Partner, KPMG
9:00AM Will strong airline performance continue through a challenging macro environment?
  • How will airlines react to a shifting macro-economic environment featuring higher fuel prices & interest rates?
  • Will we see increased fleet turnover as the economic case for mid-life assets deteriorate?
  • How do airlines expect to develop their fleet planning over the next 10-15 years & what does that mean for delivery profiles?
Declan Ryan, Managing Partner & Executive Chair, Irelandia & Viva Air
Ricardo Javier Sanchez Baker, Chief Financial Officer, Aeromexico
Tewolde Gebremariam, Chief Executive Officer, Ethiopian Airlines
10:00AM Headwinds facing airline treasuries
  • How are airlines strengthening their position vis a vis rising interest rates?
  • What fuel hedging strategies do airlines have in place in the face of rising fuel prices?
  • Which financing structures are best suited to today’s macro environment?
Moderator: Steven Udvar-Hazy, Executive Chairman, Air Lease Corporation
Christine Rovelli, Vice President - Group Treasurer, Finnair
Marjan Riggi, Senior Managing Director, Kroll Bond Rating Agency
Chris Monroe, Senior Vice President, Finance & Treasurer, Southwest Airlines
Erlendur Svavarsson, Senior Vice President, Loftleidir Icelandic
Tamer Yuzuak, Senior Vice President, Finance and Fleet Management, Pegasus Airlines
10:40AM Lessor CEO interviews

Back by popular demand, hear the CEO’s of the world’s most influential leasing companies discuss what they see as the future of aviation finance and their strategies for achieving it.

Moderator: Greg Lee, Managing Director, Goldman Sachs
Moderator: Bertrand Dehouck, Head of EMEA, BNP Paribas
Alec Burger, President and CEO, GECAS
Domhnal Slattery, Chief Executive Officer, Avolon
Aengus Kelly, Chief Executive Officer, AerCap
11:20AM Morning refreshments & networking break
11:50AM Continued CEO interviews

Back by popular demand, hear the CEO’s of the world’s most influential leasing companies discuss what they see as the future of aviation finance and their strategies for achieving it.

John Plueger, Chief Executive Officer and President, Air Lease Corporation
Norman Liu, Senior Advisor, ICBC Leasing
12:40PM Networking lunch
2:00PM Do we expect demand for cargo aircraft to continue to rise?
  • What degree of cargo fleet renewal can we expect to see across the cargo market segment?
  • When will the economic case for 700s & 800s make sense for cargo operators?
  • How popular do we expect cargo conversions be for both operators & lessors?
Moderator: Russ Hubbard, Director - Aircraft Remarketing, Air Partner
Edward McGarvey, Vice President & Treasurer, Atlas Air Worldwide
Richard Greener, Senior Vice President & Manager Cargo, GE Capital Aviation Services
Paul Rasquin, Director Fleet Planning, Cargolux Airlines International SA
2:40PM Is a new wave of lessor consolidation upon us?
  • In light of Goshawk’s acquisition of Sky Leasing, can we expect more of this activity in 2019?
  • Will the race to the bottom in the sale and leaseback market cause consolidation to proliferate?
  • How sustainable is the growth of entrants from Asia?
Moderator: Doug Walker, Managing Director & Global Head of Coverage, Seabury Consulting now part of Accenture
Paul Sheridan, Chief Executive Officer, Accipiter
Ling Li, Managing Director, Aviation, Bocomm Leasing
Tom Barrett, President & Chief Executive Officer Designate, Engine Lease Finance Corporation
Stephen Cook, Global Head Of Transportation Finance, Executive Director, Macquarie Bank
3:20PM Afternoon networking break & refreshments
4:00PM Can we expect the frequency of ABS issuance to continue to rise in 2019?
  • The level of aircraft ABS issuance set records in 2018, what is driving this market segment and what do investors need to know to utilise it?
  • What impact can asset appraisers have on the overall value proposition of aircraft securitisations?
  • What role do lessor “sidecars” or management vehicles play in the market today?
Keith Allman, Vice President Senior Securitized Asset Analyst, Loomis Sayles
Mary E Kane, Managing Director, Head of ABS Research, Citi
Ryan McKenna, Vice President, Air Lease Corporation
Radha Tilton, Managing Director, Goldman Sachs
Steven Gaal, Managing Partner & Co-Founder, Skyworks Capital, LLC
4:40PM Pilarski says...Drink

Back by ever popular demand, hear one of the industry’s most prominent & respected economists give his forecast on the industry’s future, what headwinds we ought to be cognisant of – in his trademark entertaining style.

Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice President, AVITAS
5:10PM In conversation with John Leahy

Exclusively at Airfinance Journal Dublin 2019, hear John Leahy in his first public appearance since retirement giving his take on the future of the aviation industry in this free-ranging interview

Moderator: Scott Hamilton, Managing Director, Leeham Co.
John Leahy, Chief Operating Officer - Customers, retired, Airbus
6:10PM Chairperson's closing remarks
Gillian Kelly, Partner, KPMG
6:15PM Open drinks reception

Day 2: Thursday, January 24, 2019

8:00AM Morning networking & refreshments
8:55AM Chairperson's opening remarks
9:00AM Airline opening keynote
9:40AM What does the future of low-cost long-haul look like?
Daniel Roeska, Vice President & Senior Analyst, European Transportation, Sanford C Bernstein
10:20AM Factoring airline credit risk when taking bulk orders of new technology aircraft
  • What level of credit risk is being taken on when untested airlines make bulk orders of new technology aircraft?
  • What risk management strategies do OEM treasuries employ to mitigate chances of defaults?
  • Is it sensible for unestablished airlines to be making bulk orders of new technology aircraft primarily for the purpose of pricing?
  • Will the rise in interest rates impact the appetite for new technology aircraft?
Moderator: Catherine Duffy, Partner, Aviation & Transport Finance, A&L Goodbody
Dick Forsberg, Head of Strategy, Avolon
Virginia Fox, Chief Risk Officer, GE Capital Aviation Services
Phil Seymour, Chief Executive Officer & ISTAT Senior Fellow Appraiser, IBA Group Limited
Brian Rynott, Managing Director, Alton Aviation Consultancy
11:00AM Morning networking break & refreshments
11:20AM If a cycle downturn was here, what would it look like?

The matter of where we stand in the aviation industry cycle is a matter of constant debate; however often speculation reigns. Hear three experts cut through the noise; assess what the signs of a downturn would be if it were here, and analyse whether or not those signs are present today.

Peter Morris, Chief Economist, Flight Ascend Consultancy
Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, International Air Transport Association
Vicky Pryce, Former Joint Head of UK Government Economic Service & Board Member, Centre for Economics & Business Research
Betsy R Snyder, Director, S&P Global
12:00PM Lunch & end of conference